The Art of Uncertainty

The Art of Uncertainty

From the UK¿s ¿statistical national treasure¿, a clever and data-driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertaintyWe live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we don¿t know? And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play in our liv......
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<p><b>From the UK¿s ¿statistical national treasure¿, a clever and data-driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertainty<br><br></b>We live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we don¿t know? And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play in our lives?<br><br>David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data in order to understand risks and assess the chances of what might happen in the future. In <i>The Art of Uncertainty</i>, he gives readers a window onto how we can all do this better.<br><br>In engaging, crystal-clear prose, he takes us through the principles of probability, showing how it can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to pandemics and climate change forecasts, and explores how we can update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. Along the way, he explains why roughly 40% of football results come down to luck rather than talent, how the National Ris
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‘Probably the UK’s greatest living statistician’ TelegraphFrom the UK’s ‘statistical national treasure’, a clever and data-driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertaintyWe live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we don’t know? And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play in our lives?David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data in order to understand risks and assess the chances of what might happen in the future. In The Art of Uncertainty, he gives readers a window onto how we can all do this better.In engaging, crystal-clear prose, he takes us through the principles of probability, showing how it can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to pandemics and climate change forecasts, and explores how we can update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. Along the way, he explains why roughly 40% of football results come down to luck rather than talent, how the National Risk Register assesses near-term risks to the United Kingdom, and why we can be so confident that two properly shuffled packs of cards have never, ever been in the exact same order.Drawing on a wide range of captivating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also having the humility to admit what we do not know
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From the UK’s ‘statistical national treasure’, a clever and data-driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertaintyLife is uncertain. We are all the result of an unforeseen and unforeseeable sequence of small occurrences. But what underlies this fragile chain of events? Is it random or just complex? And what role does luck play in our lives?David Spiegelhalter has spent his career crunching data in order to help understand uncertainty and assess the chances of what might happen. In The Art of Uncertainty, he gives readers a window onto how we can all do this better. Uncertainty, he argues, is a relationship between the observer and an object in the outside world. He shows us how we can express it numerically, and then update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. In crystal-clear prose, he takes us through the principles of probability, a field that informs everything from annuities to pandemics and climate change, while also examining the limitations of statistical modelling and arguing we need to have the humility to admit our ignorance. Drawing on a wide range of real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty in a world that makes it inevitable.

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Oppdag The Art of Uncertainty

The Art of Uncertainty er en fascinerende reise inn i usikkerhetens verden. Enten du er en dataentusiast eller bare nysgjerrig på hvordan vi håndterer risiko i hverdagen, vil denne boken gi deg innsikten du trenger.

En Praktisk Guide til Usikkerhet

Skrevet av David Spiegelhalter, anerkjent som Storbritannias "statistiske nasjonalskatt", tar denne boken for seg hvordan vi kan forstå og navigere gjennom livets usikkerheter. Her er hva du kan forvente:

  • Engasjerende og klart språk: Spiegelhalter presenterer komplekse emner på en lettfattelig måte, noe som gjør det enkelt for alle å følge med.
  • Data og risiko: Få innblikk i hvordan data kan hjelpe deg å ta bedre beslutninger om alt fra medisinsk rådgivning til klimaendringer.
  • Analyse av tilfeldigheter: Utforsk hvordan omtrent 40% av fotballresultatene er påvirket av flaks, ikke bare talent.

HVORFOR VELGE 'The Art of Uncertainty'?

Det finnes mange bøker om statistikk, men få som gjør emnet så tilgjengelig som The Art of Uncertainty. Denne boken vil ikke bare utstyre deg med verktøy for å håndtere ukjente faktorer, men også styrke dine analytiske ferdigheter. Uansett hvilke livsområder du er interessert i - fra helse til økonomi - vil denne boka være en uvurderlig ressurs.

Hvem bør lese denne boken?

Er du en student, profesjonell eller bare en livsnyter som er nysgjerrig på statistikk og usikkerhet? Da er The Art of Uncertainty noe for deg. Den er perfekt for deg som ønsker å forstå mer om hvordan vi kan navigere i en stadig mer kompleks verden.

Ikke la usikkerhet skremme deg – ta kontroll med The Art of Uncertainty i hånden!

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